REAL COMPANIES. EXPLICIT ASSUMPTIONS. · First model editions in development
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Read a DCF sensitivity analysis

Explore how assumptions influence the result, without confusing scenarios with probabilities.

Separate sensitivities from scenarios

A sensitivity table isolates selected variables, such as discount rate and terminal growth. A scenario represents a connected business outcome, with related revenue, margin and investment assumptions.

Watch terminal value

Under a perpetual-growth approach, terminal value is next-period free cash flow divided by the difference between discount rate and perpetual growth. The discount rate must exceed the growth rate, and the long-run growth and reinvestment assumptions must make economic sense.

Choose defensible ranges

A larger table is not automatically more informative. Explain why each range is plausible and identify operational changes that could lead to a different cash-flow trajectory.

Show uncertainty honestly

Do not label a bull case as likely or assign probabilities without supporting analysis. The goal is to make uncertainty visible, not to disguise it behind a target price.

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