SpaceX Excel edition
Launch services, Starlink connectivity and AI revenue assumptions. Change the highlighted assumptions to explore the relationship between operating performance, cash flow and value.
Inside the workbook
- Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and DCF Valuation worksheets.
- Three historical fiscal years and ten modeled periods with source and forecast notes.
- Discounted cash flows, terminal-value methods and valuation sensitivities.
| Edition detail | Included |
|---|---|
| Valuation date | 2 October 2026 |
| Historical periods | FY2023A, FY2024A, FY2025A |
| Modeled periods | FY2026E–FY2035E |
| Financial currency | USD in millions |
| Format | Editable .xlsx · Four worksheets · 46.8 KB |
| Price | US$19.99 for 12 months of company-model access |
Historical figures recorded in this edition
These are cached historical entries in the uploaded SpaceX workbook, dated 2 October 2026. Fiscal-year labels and units follow the file; they are not live data. The source annotations below are the model author’s references, rather than an independent audit of every figure.
| Metric | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 10,387.00 | 14,015.00 | 18,674.00 |
| Operating income (EBIT) | -3,505.00 | 466.00 | -2,589.00 |
| Net income | -4,628.00 | 791.00 | -4,937.00 |
How this edition builds the forecast
Launch services, Starlink connectivity and AI revenue assumptions. The first forecast period is FY2026E. The editable assumptions distinguish the operating driver from the reasoning used to forecast it.
Customer Falcon launches (number)
Mechanism: Volume: growth % reached by end of stage
Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: -7.0% · FY27E: 0.0% · FY28E-FY31E: 6.0% · FY32E-FY35E: 4.0%
Read this driver’s forecast rationale
Customer launches fell to 17 in 1H26 from 21 in 1H25 (SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04, Key Business Metrics) and the company expects Falcon 9 launches to decrease over time as Starship enters service (SEC Form 424B4 (IPO prospectus) filed 2026-06-12, Launches). Assumption: ~40 in FY26, flat in FY27, then growth once Starship flies customer payloads (all Starship launches to date are internal), slowing at maturity.
Read the workbook’s historical source annotation
SEC Form 424B4 (IPO prospectus) filed 2026-06-12, MD&A - Key Business Metrics, Launches footnote (1): customer launches 33 / 45 / 43; internal launches (63 / 89 / 122) earn no revenue
Revenue per customer launch ($mm)
Mechanism: Price: growth % per year
Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: 3.0% · FY27E: 3.0% · FY28E-FY31E: 0.0% · FY32E-FY35E: -2.0%
Read this driver’s forecast rationale
Implied $57-60mm per customer launch in FY23-FY25. 2Q26 revenue rose on 'favorable customer mix' (SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04, Space revenue). Assumption: modest mix gain near term, flat then slightly lower as Starship lowers cost per kg.
Launch & Development
Mechanism: Revenue: growth % reached by end of stage
Inputs shown in this file: FY26E: 9.0% · FY27E: 9.0% · FY28E-FY31E: 6.0% · FY32E-FY35E: 3.0%
Read this driver’s forecast rationale
1H26 revenue $603mm vs $555mm (+8.6%) on timing of government contract work (SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04, Note 3 and Space revenue). Assumption: continues at a similar rate, slowing over time. Limitation: Revenue is recognised over time on government development contracts (cost-to-cost). The company does not disclose contract values, milestones or backlog by programme, so no unit driver can be built.
Read the workbook’s historical source annotation
SEC Form 424B4 (IPO prospectus) filed 2026-06-12, Note 3 - Revenue, p. F-23
The later forecast years contain modeling judgments. The historical labels, financial-period dates and valuation date are separate from any stock-price observation; this page does not supply a current market quote.
SpaceX’s Class A shares trade on Nasdaq under SPCX. Nasdaq records the start of trading on 12 June 2026; the company’s June 2026 SEC filing also identifies the ticker and exchange. Nasdaq listing announcement · SEC June 2026 quarterly filing.
One company. One year of access.
Your US$19.99 one-time purchase includes 12 months of downloads and updates for this company’s model. No automatic renewal. Downloaded files remain usable after access ends; no fixed update cadence is promised.
Read the current version’s notes
USD in millions, fiscal year ending December 31. Base case: FY2026E and FY2027E revenue are set to land on analyst consensus; later years are this model's own assumptions, each explained in the last column.
Dates and descriptions reflect this workbook’s notes. They are not a claim of independent audit or a guarantee that its forecasts will occur.